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AQRApplied Quantitative Reasoning

Quarter 4

Don't Get Played

Vocabulary for claims, evidence, sources, misleading displays, credibility, and reasonable belief.

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Published vocabulary

22 terms in the standard AQR format.

Start with the plain-language meaning, then use the fuller definition and sentence stem as the term becomes familiar.

  1. Quarter-essential

    Cherry-picking

    Full definition
    Cherry-picking is selecting only the data, dates, groups, examples, or evidence that support a preferred story while ignoring relevant information that challenges it.
    Plain language
    Showing only the pieces that help one side.
    How we use it in AQR
    You will look for missing time periods, comparison groups, and counterevidence before accepting a conclusion.
    Example question or sentence stem
    The presentation may be cherry-picking ______.

  2. Quarter-essential

    Comparison

    Full definition
    A comparison examines similarities, differences, ratios, changes, or relative size between quantities, groups, time periods, or conditions.
    Plain language
    Looking at one thing in relation to another.
    How we use it in AQR
    AQR asks 'Compared to what?' because a number often has little meaning without a fair reference point.
    Example question or sentence stem
    The claim is comparing ______ with ______.

  3. Quarter-essential

    Context

    Full definition
    Context is the background information, conditions, definitions, time period, comparison, and situation needed to understand a number, statement, or event accurately.
    Plain language
    The surrounding information needed to understand something correctly.
    How we use it in AQR
    You will look for missing context that changes what a graph, statistic, quote, or claim means.
    Example question or sentence stem
    The missing context is ______.

  4. Quarter-essential

    Counterevidence

    Full definition
    Counterevidence is relevant information that challenges, weakens, complicates, or contradicts a claim or explanation.
    Plain language
    Evidence that points against the claim or shows the story is incomplete.
    How we use it in AQR
    Strong thinkers actively search for counterevidence and revise when the evidence changes the balance.
    Example question or sentence stem
    One piece of counterevidence is ______.

  5. Quarter-essential

    Credibility

    Full definition
    Credibility is the degree to which a source, author, method, or claim deserves trust based on expertise, evidence, transparency, accuracy, and possible incentives or conflicts.
    Plain language
    How much a source deserves to be trusted.
    How we use it in AQR
    You will evaluate credibility with reasons instead of using reputation alone or assuming a professional-looking page is reliable.
    Example question or sentence stem
    This source is more or less credible because ______.

  6. Quarter-essential

    Denominator

    Full definition
    The denominator is the bottom number in a fraction and represents the whole, total, or reference amount used in a ratio, rate, or percentage.
    Plain language
    The whole or base that the part is being compared with.
    How we use it in AQR
    You will ask for the denominator when percentages or rates are used to create a dramatic impression.
    Example question or sentence stem
    The denominator is ______, which matters because ______.

  7. Quarter-essential

    Method

    Full definition
    A method is the process used to collect, select, measure, calculate, analyze, or present information. Different methods can produce different results.
    Plain language
    How the information was gathered or worked with.
    How we use it in AQR
    You will examine whether the method fits the question and whether it introduces bias or important limitations.
    Example question or sentence stem
    The method may affect the result because ______.

  8. Quarter-essential

    Misleading display

    Full definition
    A misleading display is a graph, chart, table, image, or visual design that creates an inaccurate, exaggerated, incomplete, or unfair impression even if some numbers are technically correct.
    Plain language
    A visual that pushes you toward the wrong impression.
    How we use it in AQR
    You will identify scale tricks, missing labels, unequal intervals, distorted images, and unfair comparisons.
    Example question or sentence stem
    This display is misleading because ______.

  9. Quarter-essential

    Reasonable belief

    Full definition
    A reasonable belief is a conclusion that fits the best available evidence while acknowledging uncertainty, alternatives, and limitations. It may change when stronger evidence appears.
    Plain language
    What it makes sense to believe right now, based on the evidence.
    How we use it in AQR
    Q4 ends with careful judgments, not demands for perfect certainty or automatic disbelief.
    Example question or sentence stem
    A reasonable person should currently believe ______, while still questioning ______.

  10. Quarter-essential

    Source

    Full definition
    A source is the person, organization, document, dataset, publication, website, or system from which information or evidence comes.
    Plain language
    Where the information came from.
    How we use it in AQR
    You will trace claims and numbers back to their original or best available source instead of trusting screenshots or repeated posts.
    Example question or sentence stem
    The original source is ______.

  11. Recognize and begin using

    Anecdote

    Full definition
    An anecdote is a brief story or personal example about a single event or person. Anecdotes may illustrate an issue but usually cannot establish how common something is.
    Plain language
    One person's story or example.
    How we use it in AQR
    You will distinguish meaningful personal experience from evidence strong enough to support a broad claim.
    Example question or sentence stem
    This anecdote does not prove ______.

  12. Recognize and begin using

    Base rate

    Full definition
    A base rate is the normal or background frequency of an event in a population before new evidence or a special test result is considered.
    Plain language
    How common something usually is before looking at the new case.
    How we use it in AQR
    Base rates help prevent dramatic examples or test results from being interpreted without the larger pattern.
    Example question or sentence stem
    The base rate matters because ______.

  13. Recognize and begin using

    Conflict of interest

    Full definition
    A conflict of interest exists when a personal, financial, professional, or organizational interest could influence judgment, research, reporting, or recommendations.
    Plain language
    A reason someone may benefit from one conclusion or choice.
    How we use it in AQR
    You will consider incentives without assuming that a conflict automatically proves dishonesty or error.
    Example question or sentence stem
    A possible conflict of interest is ______.

  14. Recognize and begin using

    False precision

    Full definition
    False precision occurs when numbers are reported with more exact digits or certainty than the measurement, data, or method can reasonably support.
    Plain language
    Making a number look more exact than the evidence allows.
    How we use it in AQR
    You will question outputs such as 87.463 percent when the inputs are rough estimates or small samples.
    Example question or sentence stem
    This number shows false precision because ______.

  15. Recognize and begin using

    Generalization

    Full definition
    A generalization is a broad statement extended from particular examples, observations, or samples to a larger group or situation.
    Plain language
    A broad conclusion based on a smaller set of cases.
    How we use it in AQR
    You will decide whether the evidence supports the size of the generalization being made.
    Example question or sentence stem
    This generalization goes beyond the evidence because ______.

  16. Recognize and begin using

    Transparency

    Full definition
    Transparency is openness about sources, data, methods, calculations, funding, assumptions, uncertainty, and limitations so others can examine the work.
    Plain language
    Showing where the information came from and how the conclusion was made.
    How we use it in AQR
    You will value explanations that make their process visible and be cautious when key details are hidden.
    Example question or sentence stem
    The analysis would be more transparent if ______.

  17. Extension vocabulary

    Burden of proof

    Full definition
    Burden of proof is the responsibility to provide sufficient evidence for a claim, especially when the claim is strong, surprising, or consequential.
    Plain language
    The person making the claim has to support it.
    How we use it in AQR
    You will match the strength of the evidence required to the size and importance of the claim.
    Example question or sentence stem
    The burden of proof is higher here because ______.

  18. Extension vocabulary

    Framing

    Full definition
    Framing is the way information is selected, organized, worded, or presented so that an audience is encouraged to view an issue from a particular perspective.
    Plain language
    How a story is shaped to influence how people see it.
    How we use it in AQR
    You will compare different ways the same data can be framed and identify which details are emphasized or hidden.
    Example question or sentence stem
    This claim is framed to make the audience focus on ______.

  19. Extension vocabulary

    Provenance

    Full definition
    Provenance is the documented origin, history, ownership, and movement of data, information, or an artifact.
    Plain language
    The traceable story of where information came from.
    How we use it in AQR
    Checking provenance helps you find the original dataset, identify changes, and avoid relying on detached screenshots.
    Example question or sentence stem
    The provenance of this number can be traced to ______.

  20. Extension vocabulary

    Statistical significance

    Full definition
    Statistical significance is a formal judgment that an observed result would be unlikely under a stated chance model, given particular assumptions. It does not automatically show that a result is important, large, or causal.
    Plain language
    A test suggests the result may not be due only to chance.
    How we use it in AQR
    Extension learners may distinguish statistical significance from practical importance and causation.
    Example question or sentence stem
    Even if the result is statistically significant, we still need to ask ______.

  21. Extension vocabulary

    Survivorship bias

    Full definition
    Survivorship bias occurs when conclusions are based mainly on the people, cases, or examples that remained visible or successful while failures and missing cases are ignored.
    Plain language
    Looking only at what survived and forgetting what disappeared.
    How we use it in AQR
    You will ask whether success stories leave out the larger number of attempts that failed or were never reported.
    Example question or sentence stem
    Survivorship bias may be present because ______ is missing.

  22. Extension vocabulary

    Triangulation

    Full definition
    Triangulation is checking a question or conclusion by using multiple sources, methods, datasets, or perspectives and comparing whether they point toward a similar result.
    Plain language
    Checking the same idea in more than one independent way.
    How we use it in AQR
    You may triangulate a claim with an original source, another credible source, and your own calculation.
    Example question or sentence stem
    I triangulated the claim by comparing ______, ______, and ______.